I wrote this a long time ago, now I'm curious what other high level crafters think about the difficulty in succeeding in their craft.




Alright, I'm a crafter at titanium armor level and I've been wondering for a long time what are the chances of actually succeeding to the next level, since it's incredibly hard to find armors for materials, force cores, let alone force upgrading and succeeding amp craft and proof craft. I made a lot of assumptions and did my calculations quickly, but hopefully my understandings of statistics isn't too rudimentary and that I've been able to establish a reasonable idea of succeeding in crafting. If you find that I'm in error in calculation or my understanding in statistics, please feel free to correct me.


So here we go...






...suppose you get a slotted titanium item drop 1 out of 50 mobs 1/50

To get the particular item you want, there's 18 different items that could drop, so if i wanted heavy armor boots, there's a 1/18 chance i might get that particular one.

Suppose I'm a crafter, and one of my fields is at 60%(enabling me the opportunity to make amp craft and possibly resulting in the materials i need for proof), suppose my field is suits.

To craft titanium armor proof, this requires me to craft an armor suit with sword skill amp.: 2 %

To craft this proof item, I must succeed in crafting this particular armor with this particular field.


Alright, lets suppose I want to attempt to craft an amp item.
This requires that I take a Titanium Armorsuit with an empty slot, and do a 2nd level force upgrade on it, meaning that I need at least 2 force cores to even have the chance of getting a second level enchant.

when placing 2 force cores into the upgrading machine it says the following:
level 1 enchant 75%
level 2 enchant 25%

so there's a 1 out of 4 chance of getting a level 2 enchant GIVEN that your force upgrade does NOT fail( when placing 2 cores in the upgrade machine, it claims that success rate of the upgrade is 77%, so you will automatically fail 1 out of 4 upgrades and lose 2 cores).

So suppose I succeed in in making a level 2 enchant.
There are 15 level 2 enchants that I know of.
As far as I know 3 of these enchants dont apply to suit:
crit rate increase, min damage, add damage

I am assuming that the remaining 12 are able to be placed on a suit:
hp steal 2%
max mp steal per hit 10
MAX crit rate 2%
sword skill amp 5%
magic skill amp 5%
flee rate 1%
hp auto heal 2
mp autoheal 2
skill xp per skill 4
alz drop amount 15%
1 slot item drop 1.2 times
2 slot item drop 2.5 times

I want max crit rate 2% on my armorsuit, so given that I succeed the force upgrade (overall) and that I succeed in making the level 2 enchant(1 out of 4 chance), I have a 1 out of 12 chance of getting max crit rate(this is assuming that these 12 level 2 enchants are evenly distributed).

So you have a 3/4 chance of succeeding your force upgrade, you have a 1/4 chance of getting a level 2 enchant and you have a 1/12 chance of getting the force enchant that you need:

(3/4)(1/4)(1/12)= 0.015625 ---> ~1.56%

Meaning if I do 200 force upgrades, I might be able to succeed 3 with max crit rate.

Suppose that I succeed and I am able to get max crit rate 2% on my armor suit and I am able to attempt to make an armor suit of amp. Here are the possible outcomes when you craft amp:

titanium armor suit with 1 % sword skill amp
titanium armor suit with 2 % sword skill amp(this is what we're aiming for)
titanium armor suit 2 with 2% sword skill amp
titanium armor suit 2 with 3% sword skill amp

titanium armor suit with 1% magic skill amp
titanium armor suit with 2% magic skill amp
titanium armor suit 2 with 2% magic skill amp
titanium armor suit 2 with 3% magic skill amp


Assuming its equally likely to get magic amp or sword amp, that's a 1 out of 2 chance of getting sword amp.

Lets assume that the probability of getting any particular result is based on a standard normal distribution:

"In practice, one often assumes that data are from an approximately normally distributed population. If that assumption is justified, then about 68% of the values are at within 1 standard deviation away from the mean, about 95% of the values are within two standard deviations and about 99.7% lie within 3 standard deviations."



explanation of picture:
#"Dark blue is less than one standard deviation from the mean. For the normal distribution, this accounts for about 68% of the set while two standard deviations from the mean (blue and brown) account for about 95% and three standard deviations (blue, brown and green) account for about 99.7%."

So assuming that it's equally likely in getting magic or sword skill amp, and our normal distribution curve is symmetric, we only need to examine the probabilistic distribution of one half of the curve.

Lets ignore armor 2 with 3% sword skill amp, since this is too rare of an occurance or rather, lets assume that the probability of getting 3% is outside 3 standard deviations of the mean.

Lets assign 1% sword skill amp(or magic skill amp, same probabilities) to 34.1%(considering we see 1% skill amp crafts the most from experience), lets assign 2% skill amp to 13.6%, and 2 with 2% to 2.1%.

So from this, we'll assume that there's a 13.6% chance of getting the right amp piece to continue to proof craft.



Finally, probability of succeeding proof. I have no idea what the actual success rates are for crafting proof. I've had experiences where the lower level crafts succeeded on the first try to the next level and I've also had an experience where my proof craft failed 7 times in a row before it finally succeeded. So lets make a wild assumption and assume the success rate is 75%(failure rate of 1 out of 4 in other words).

So wrapping up all my assumptions(some of them being completely wild assumptions):

1/50 --> 2% chance of getting a slotted titanium drop
1/18 --> 5.55% chance of getting a particular slotted titanium drop
0.015625 ---> ~1.56% chance of getting an exact level 2 force upgrade(ie max crit rate 2%)
.136 ---> 13.6% chance of getting 2% skill amp armor( 0)
.75 --> 75% chance of succeeding proof


.020000 * .055555 * .015625 * .136000 * .750000 = 1.77083 * 10^-6 = .00000177083

which is a roughly 564705.8 to one chance of getting proof titanium for a particular part.

To put this in perspective, to win the a lottery that has 6 numbers with 40 different balls(order does not matter) the odds are 3,838,380 to one.




(#content/explanations on standard normal distributions taken from wikipedia)



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